Growth & Conditions
Whether money is easy or tight for the economy, and the gauges that have signalled recessions: the yield curve, the Sahm rule, jobless claims and GDP.
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Sep 25, 2026
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$0.00T
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Sep 25, 2026
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+$00.0B over 1 week
Sep 25, 2026
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+$00.0B over 1 week
Sep 25, 2026
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$0.00T
+$00.0B over 1 week
Sep 25, 2026
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$0.00T
+$00.0B over 1 week
Sep 25, 2026
Financial conditions
Weekly
Financial conditions (Chicago Fed NFCI)
National Financial Conditions Index and its adjusted version, weekly; zero is the average
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Financial stress (St. Louis Fed)
Financial Stress Index, weekly; zero is normal
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Recession gauges
Monthly; NBER recessions shaded
Recession probability from the yield curve
Probability of a US recession twelve months ahead, New York Fed method, percent
Source: Federal Reserve H.15; New York Fed model; BlockPhi calculation
Sahm rule
Real-time Sahm rule indicator, percentage points; 0.50 is the recession signal
Source: Claudia Sahm via FRED
Activity
Initial jobless claims
New unemployment insurance claims, weekly and four-week average, thousands
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Real GDP growth
Quarter on quarter, annualized, percent
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis