Liquidity Lead Analysis

Quantile forecast fan and GL-to-BTC transmission models

Liquidity Quantile Forecast Fan

Conditional BTC return distribution given GL 13-week change

GL vs BTC Price

Adjust the slider to shift Global Liquidity forward

GL Macro Regime

Log z-score deviation — ±2σ regime bands

BTC Liquidity Fair Value

GL-derived fair value — power law fit with ±1σ / ±2σ deviation bands

Liquidity Quantile Forecast Fan

Conditional BTC return distribution given GL 13-week change

GL vs BTC Price

Adjust the slider to shift Global Liquidity forward

expand

GL Macro Regime

Log z-score deviation — ±2σ regime bands

expand

BTC Liquidity Fair Value

GL-derived fair value — power law fit with ±1σ / ±2σ deviation bands

expand

Chart notes

Liquidity Quantile Forecast Fan

What it shows

This chart answers one question: given how much Global Liquidity has changed over the past 13 weeks, what has Bitcoin usually done 11 weeks later? It looks back at every past period with a similar 13-week liquidity change and collects the Bitcoin returns that followed. The fan then shows how those historical returns were spread out, from the 10th percentile at the bottom (q10) to the 90th percentile at the top (q90).

Why it matters

The vertical line marks today’s 13-week liquidity change. Read straight up from it to see the range of returns that followed similar readings in the past.
The middle line (q50) is the median outcome. Half of the past cases did better than this line and half did worse, so it is a balanced estimate rather than a best or worst case.
The q25 to q75 band holds the middle half of past outcomes. The wider this band, the less certain the outcome, which is a reason to size positions smaller.
Look at the q10 line for the downside that showed up in the worst tenth of past cases. If that downside is larger than you are willing to hold through, reduce exposure or lengthen your time horizon.