Bitcoin Overview

BTC Price vs. Global Liquidity RoC & Macro Regimes

Macro Regime: BTC/USD vs Inverted Dollar Basket

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GL (+11W) & BTC 6W Changes

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BTC Price vs. Global Liquidity RoC

GL shifted +11 weeks against BTC 6-week RoC

Macro Regime: BTC/USD vs Inverted Dollar Basket

Regime-colored price overlay

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The macro regime chart is free with a BlockPhi account. No card required.

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GL (+11W) & BTC 6W Changes

Rate-of-change overlay

expand

BTC Price vs. Global Liquidity RoC

GL shifted +11 weeks against BTC 6-week RoC

expand

Chart notes

Macro Regime: BTC vs Inverted Dollar Basket

What it shows

Compares Bitcoin’s standardized price regime against the BlockPhi Dollar Basket, inverted and lagged by 90 days. The basket is the dollar against six major currencies (EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%), built by BlockPhi from the Federal Reserve’s daily H.10 exchange rates. The US Dollar is of critical importance to global liquidity: a strengthening dollar severely contracts global liquidity, while a weakening dollar expands it. This establishes a direct, fundamental link between dollar trends and Global Liquidity.

Why it matters

Because Bitcoin is priced in USD and global debt is heavily dollar-denominated, a weakening dollar (a rising inverted basket) expands worldwide liquidity and provides a supportive macro environment for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin rallies while the inverted basket is falling sharply, the rally is driven by crypto-native factors rather than broader global dollar liquidity. Adopt tighter risk management rules.
Normally, the regime is expected to track within the ±2σ bands. When price moves outside the ±2σ bands, the probability of returning back inside the 2-sigma regime bands is very high, so excursions outside the bands should be viewed as crypto-native outliers.